Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.518914 2.950416 3.429549 4.000465 4.661687 5.402882 6.296243
2025-11-30 1.876609 2.459591 3.178000 4.125835 5.340834 6.843257 8.839269
2025-12-07 1.421076 2.045212 2.883603 4.086317 5.760871 8.002400 11.222145
2025-12-14 1.120319 1.746561 2.651795 4.045613 6.125613 9.100002 13.657952
2025-12-21 0.918241 1.535569 2.486982 4.044838 6.513189 10.248963 16.299112
2025-12-28 0.835105 1.484665 2.543084 4.370852 7.420064 12.264583 20.489031
2026-01-04 0.725312 1.365495 2.464260 4.457845 7.946053 13.741388 24.014697
2026-01-11 0.636531 1.263904 2.393793 4.539561 8.462189 15.251448 27.770844
2026-01-18 0.554941 1.158986 2.297525 4.554700 8.854144 16.585689 31.376399
2026-01-25 0.480904 1.054128 2.182560 4.513103 9.128659 17.733892 34.775714
2026-02-01 0.396509 0.912072 1.971791 4.250938 8.941669 18.003314 36.568730
2026-02-08 0.339539 0.817315 1.840023 4.124627 8.998335 18.729626 39.304682
2026-02-15 0.295260 0.744439 1.746451 4.072643 9.218317 19.840305 43.020519
2026-02-22 0.273502 0.720164 1.755713 4.247457 9.947947 22.083060 49.349879
2026-03-01 0.241002 0.663348 1.681727 4.222959 10.238083 23.447016 54.012011
2026-03-08 0.212421 0.610552 1.607967 4.186432 10.494298 24.767764 58.744448
2026-03-15 0.189788 0.568742 1.553652 4.187506 10.837080 26.319793 64.180134
2026-03-22 0.185888 0.577724 1.629240 4.525186 12.038724 29.970254 74.848069
2026-03-29 0.170958 0.552147 1.610140 4.615356 12.638416 32.286053 82.662854
2026-04-05 0.157387 0.527785 1.590165 4.699915 13.235429 34.666117 90.913705
2026-04-12 0.142789 0.497184 1.547560 4.715595 13.653850 36.657482 98.444917
2026-04-19 0.127957 0.462638 1.487612 4.672602 13.907917 38.265671 105.203169
2026-04-26 0.108272 0.407568 1.356793 4.401569 13.490596 38.093000 107.357168